"The next change is clearly targeting the business users and the mass-market users who haven't the time or inclination to become computer experts."
We're on the verge of another paradigm shift that will be at least as powerful and as potentially lucrative as the Internet and multimedia boom that fueled the last round of hardware and software sales.
This time, though, it appears that the software companies have noticed that long-time computer users are already happy with their spreadsheets, their word processors and so on. Now that software developers have added the ability for us to play movies in our spreadsheets and bolted on HTML print routines to our word processors -- what's next?
The seasoned users already have every feature they need, and more than enough they don't. It is a telling statement to hear that when Microsoft polled users about what they would like to see in the next version of Office, that more than 80 per cent of the features requested were already in the existing version of the software.
Job number one, at this point, is for the companies to put the power not just into the software, but into the hands and the mindsets of its users. Indeed, with the coming emphasis on ease-of-use, it may be the seasoned user who finds the new offerings unappealing, and, for better or worse, there is a very real possibility that "better" solutions are not necessarily those that do more. The next change is clearly targeting the business users and the mass-market users who haven't the time or inclination to become computer experts.
The indications are all around. Microsoft has been giving speeches on the subject at various venues, including the Forbes Technology Symposium and to gatherings for companies like Hewlett-Packard. One look at the "Active Help" agents in Office 97 is ample proof that the company is aiming for a friendlier interface - undoubtedly to the chagrin of those who aren't fond of animated paperclips, snuffling dogs and other cartoon-like characters that offer unsolicited help in one's business software suite.
But it's not just Microsoft. A significant percentage of the latest generation of titles I've seen are taking the "Wizard" interface to heart, (Corel's latest offerings are a great example), and using it to good advantage. Those companies that are wise enough to put a "Don't show me this again" button on their wizard interfaces are likely to please the old-timers, too.
It's All About Communication
Microsoft isn't the only company aware of the fact that there are many more people who want to communicate than there are who want to compute, but the company is one of the loudest voices stating this obvious truism. Indeed, with the shift from NetWare and other "vendor-oriented" network environments to networks based in whole or in part on TCP/IP, the things business users have learned over the past few years on the Internet are starting to filter down to the everyday level. These people aren't going to readily accept the clumsy and complicated systems that people have grudgingly put up with during the DOS-and-Windows 3.x era.
Sure, "Zero Administration Windows," if it ever becomes more than a marketing slogan, could lessen the need for computer consulting and troubleshooting services. But it's safe to say there will continue to be companies who find considerable value in training and on-site services.
The point is that the customer base destined to be using the next generation of computers is a new kind of customer - one who will expect a higher level of product satisfaction. The problematic products that clutter many dealers' shelves today, with their hardware hassles and buggy software, are the Old Way. The next-generation of customers is going to expect more.
Admittedly, it's safe to say there will continue to be plenty of opportunities for the inevitable bugs and problems to surface. But whether or not we see computers that approach the 'zero administration' ideal in the coming year, I think we'll be seeing more and more of the fruits of the Active Desktop and the Wizard-driven interfaces that typify today's most user-friendly titles.
If these add up to self-updating operating systems and software or hardware that starts to rightfully deserve the label "intelligent," you can bet that the inevitable marketing machine will be targeting the users that need these innovations the most.
It is up to you to ensure that your business model is flexible enough - and your communications systems and product lines friendly enough - to be able to meet the needs of these new consumers.
They want solutions, not computers.
They are communications-driven.
They favor mainstream standards.
The out-of-box experience is important.
They will favor systems with reduced total cost of ownership.
A good example of a market segment that has been singing this tune for a long time is education. For many years, Apple Computer Inc. has made hay with its emphasis on out-of-box experience and (sometimes) superior ease-of-use and long-term cost of ownership. Now that the original and subsequent-generation Apple computers that were sold into many schools are up for replacement (and, despite constant price-cutting and ever-diminishing margins, high-end Macs always seem to cost more), a significant number of schools are looking at their upgrade options - and they aren't just looking at Macs.
There always seem to be a few Mac evangelists on the computer support staff in any school, and they can usually make a compelling case for continued adoption of that platform, citing software investments, maintainability, and any or all of the above points. Although some decision makers will undoubtedly cite Apple's dwindling market-share and operating system uncertainty as reasons enough to switch, these are only a few of the issues nagging at the Mac managers out there. PC manufacturers like Compaq and IBM are focusing their ad campaigns on areas that Apple has long been strong in, and I think it's a good strategy. Touting easy set-up, rich multimedia and Internet functionality, they are capitalizing on the increasingly apparent fact that Apple, like Commodore and Atari before it, hasn't done a good job at marketing its message.
Apple has always created products important enough that it commanded more attention than its market-share would seem to warrant. With the emphasis on "no-hassle computing," its position as the harbinger of the PC's future remains intact.
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